Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.017487 0.019842 0.022406 0.025403 0.028813 0.032575 0.037043
2025-04-06 0.013464 0.016611 0.020338 0.025081 0.030967 0.038044 0.047220
2025-04-13 0.010950 0.014296 0.018489 0.024142 0.031585 0.041077 0.054148
2025-04-20 0.009840 0.013457 0.018209 0.024928 0.034219 0.046662 0.064680
2025-04-27 0.008939 0.012726 0.017907 0.025542 0.036557 0.051953 0.075246
2025-05-04 0.008263 0.012193 0.017770 0.026297 0.039081 0.057648 0.086875
2025-05-11 0.007433 0.011329 0.017042 0.026075 0.040092 0.061172 0.095572
2025-05-18 0.006798 0.010675 0.016536 0.026095 0.041414 0.065210 0.105372
2025-05-25 0.006160 0.009945 0.015829 0.025708 0.042020 0.068134 0.113612
2025-06-01 0.005770 0.009566 0.015626 0.026084 0.043854 0.073136 0.125689
2025-06-08 0.005316 0.009032 0.015118 0.025893 0.044701 0.076549 0.135348
2025-06-15 0.005094 0.008866 0.015196 0.026688 0.047281 0.083088 0.151056
2025-06-22 0.004602 0.008197 0.014375 0.025867 0.046991 0.084680 0.158178
2025-06-29 0.004237 0.007721 0.013847 0.025521 0.047520 0.087779 0.168407
2025-07-06 0.003822 0.007115 0.013033 0.024566 0.046819 0.088529 0.174189
2025-07-13 0.003695 0.007029 0.013154 0.025367 0.049502 0.095858 0.193528
2025-07-20 0.003553 0.006901 0.013184 0.025991 0.051891 0.102816 0.212807
2025-07-27 0.003440 0.006817 0.013287 0.026760 0.054628 0.110696 0.234760
2025-08-03 0.003219 0.006501 0.012912 0.026534 0.055310 0.114467 0.248386
2025-08-10 0.003044 0.006263 0.012669 0.026554 0.056500 0.119380 0.264953
2025-08-17 0.002841 0.005948 0.012248 0.026160 0.056767 0.122352 0.277493
2025-08-24 0.002729 0.005818 0.012194 0.026543 0.058749 0.129189 0.299470
2025-08-31 0.002573 0.005577 0.011887 0.026349 0.059430 0.133211 0.315307